An expert has projected that the U.S. economy might be headed for a recession in the new year, with timing mostly hinging on ...

Second, asset prices should lead the business cycle. Are these two features borne out by the ... real equity price changes are one of the most useful predictors of recession starts. Chart 2 portrays ...

In four cases (illustrated by the heavier vertical lines), the easing cycle finished with an official recession. As markets ...